Prediction Intelligence
Event-driven edge · participant skill · structural bias
MOCKSHADOWREAD ONLY2026-06-14 14:02:11 UTC
Tracked Events
5
Avg Edge
+5.8%
Agreement
68%
crowd ↔ model
Top Edge
+17%
ETH ETF flows
Participants
5
Calibration
78
CAL78
Final Brain
CRYPTO_BETA_RISK_ON
CONV78RISK54ALPHA81LIQ74
Reasons
- ›Global liquidity expanding (TGA drain + RRP unwind)
- ›Equities breadth >65, leadership broad
- ›DXY rejected 105.4, US10Y stable
- ›Crypto leadership rotating from BTC to ETH / SOL
- ›Funding neutral, basis curve normal contango
Preferred Flows
BTC dominance fadeETH betaL2 rotationAI narrativeUSD-funded carry
Action › Add to high-beta crypto, fade DXY rallies, avoid energy longs
Top Events · Crowd vs Model · Edge
| Event | Crowd | Model | Edge | Score | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC > $80k by Q3 | 62% | 71% | +9% | SCORE78 | FADE_CROWD |
| Fed cuts Sep | 48% | 34% | -14% | SCORE62 | WITH_CROWD |
| ETH ETF inflows > $1B/mo | 41% | 58% | +17% | SCORE84 | FADE_CROWD |
| SOL > $250 by EOY | 36% | 44% | +8% | SCORE64 | FADE_CROWD |
| Recession 2026 H1 | 22% | 31% | +9% | SCORE58 | FADE_CROWD |
Participant Rankings
| Participant | Skill | Calibration | Alpha | Consistency | Regime Fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| alpha-quant | SKL92 | CAL88 | +14.2% | CON84 | FIT78 |
| macro-bear | SKL71 | CAL64 | +4.1% | CON58 | FIT42 |
| etf-flow | SKL84 | CAL78 | +9.6% | CON72 | FIT81 |
| vol-trader | SKL78 | CAL72 | +6.2% | CON64 | FIT66 |
| crowd-fade | SKL68 | CAL74 | +3.4% | CON48 | FIT54 |
Cluster Intelligence
- Macro hawksCONV78142 participants
- Crypto bullsCONV84384 participants
- Equity bearsCONV6296 participants
- Rates-cuts crowdCONV71218 participants
Agreement
Agreement › Crowd ↔ Model 68%. Strongest alignment on ETH ETF flows and Mag 7 leadership.
Contradictions · Structural Bias
Divergence › Crowd overweights Fed cut probability vs model by 14 pts. Largest event edge: ETH ETF inflows (+17).